I had a prediction from July 28 of this year that the Electoral would be Bush 278/Kerry 260. Tonight, I make my final prediction. It’s just a slight change: Bush 279/Kerry 259. We’ll see just how close I get and just how close the election will be very soon.
I must add that almost nothing will surprise be concerning the outcome of this election. If Bush were to pull ahead in a few of the big battle-ground states it could look like a blow-out. Likewise, Kerry could win Florida and probably the election along with it.
You’ve heard it said already, I’m sure, that this election turns on voter turn-out. This is certainly true. Traditionally, the folks who don’t typically come out to vote would vote Democrat. If these voters do turn out in large numbers, Kerry is likely to win. And, the demographics in general are shifting. In the next two elections, things will look very different than they do now as far as both parties taking voting blocs for granted. If the Republicans can’t make inroads into the minority groups they will have an increasingly tough time getting the White House. I think they can do it, but it’s by no means certain.
Someone commented to me the other day that “this is the way elections are going to be from now on. Close and contested by lawyers.” I don’t think so. 2000 and 2004 are unusual cases. I’ve said many times that George W shouldn’t have won in 2000. I have also said that the reason he did win is because of Bill Clinton. If Clinton keeps his zipper zipped, Gore wins in 2000. Likewise, if we were not in Iraq right now, Bush wins this election easily. But, Iraq is a unique situation and one we’re not likely to see repeated in the future.